Tin metal is entering a new bullish cycle, predicting a sharp increase in price in the near future

TCCTFitch Solutions has sharply revised up its forecast for average tin prices for this year and 2022 in the context of strong demand for tin but weak supply. Tin is considered to be entering a new bull cycle that will last until 2030.

Specifically, market research firm Fitch Solutions (USA) raised its forecast for the average tin metal price this year from $28,000/ton to $30,500/ton. Meanwhile, the average price of tin in 2022 is strongly raised from 26,000 USD/ton to 32,500 USD/ton.

In October, the world tin price reached a record high of 38,215 USD/ton. The rise of tin prices started in March 2020 - the time when the global Covid-19 pandemic broke out, forcing millions of people to stay at home, resulting in an explosion in demand for devices. electronics as well as input materials such as tin. Solder is an important ingredient in the production of electronic circuit boards.

In addition, the ongoing energy crisis in many major economies in the world such as China and Europe has caused the demand for tin for solar panel production to skyrocket.

soldering iron
Demand for tin metal in the production of electronic circuit boards and solar panels has skyrocketed in the past period (Image: Forbes)
Meanwhile, the global tin supply, especially from Malaysia and Indonesia, has been weakened by the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. Supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia currently account for 30% of the total global tin supply. Fitch Solutions emphasized that although tin mining is gradually being restored, the rate of increase in supply cannot keep up with current demand. The amount of tin stockpiled at major global metal exchanges has continuously declined and reached the lowest level in recent years.

tin price forecast

Fitch Solutions tin price forecast in the near future
In the short term, Fitch Solutions believes that the global tin supply will improve in 2022 thanks to improved tin production in China when the energy crisis here ends and mines in Malaysia and Indonesia. Returning to normal operations after the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, Fitch Solutions warns that the rising tin price may encourage the world's key tin mining groups such as PT Timah (Indonesia) and Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad (Malaysia) to actively slow down the growth of their production. mining volume to benefit from high prices.

On the part of electronics manufacturers, the high price of tin can negatively affect demand for use in the production of electronic circuit boards because it is difficult for businesses to increase selling prices or shift the cost burden. to consumers.

In the long-term, Fitch Solutions forecasts that tin prices are entering a new bull cycle and will reach $35,500/ton by 2030. This price is almost double the average price of $18,729/ton in 2016 period. – 2020. Analysts warn that the growth rate of demand for tin will always exceed the growth rate of supply and cause the market to fall into a serious supply shortage by 2026.

Quang Dang